After 3 consecutive months of growth, the housing market appears to have eased a bit in December but the real estate market in Burlington, Vermont and Greater Chittenden County area is off to a strong start in 2012.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, December’s Pending Home Sales Index slipped 4 percent from the month prior. The index measures the number of homes under contract to sell nationwide, but not yet sold.

Despite falling below its benchmark “100 value”, December’s Pending Home Sales Index is the reading’s second-highest value since April 2010 — the last month of last year’s home buyer tax credit program.

In other words, the housing market continues to show signs of improvement, propelled by low home prices and the cheapest mortgage rates of all-time.

Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate survey put the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at an average of 3.96% in December .  With low rates many Buyers are coming back into the housing market because rental rates are higher than mortgage costs.

But even regional data is only so helpful. Like everything in real estate, data must be local to be relevant.

For today’s home buyers and sellers, therefore, it’s important to understand your local market and the drivers of local activity. Reports like the Pending Home Sales Index can paint a broad picture U.S. housing but for data that matters to you, you’ll want to look local.

For local real estate data, talk to an experienced real estate professional.

The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008.

For the third consecutive month, the Fed Funds Rate vote was nearly unanimous. Just one FOMC member dissented in the 9-1 vote, objecting only to the language used in the Fed’s official statement.

In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that the the U.S. economy has “expanding moderately” since its last meeting in December 2011, adding that the growth is occurring despite “slowing in global growth” — a reference to ongoing economic uncertainty within the Eurozone.

The Federal Reserve expects moderate economic expansion through the next few quarters but is wary of “strains” from global financial markets, and these three threats to the U.S. economy.  On the positive side, the FOMC said that household spending is rising and inflation remains in-check. The group also believes that employment will gradually improve nationwide going forward.

The Federal Reserve neither introduced new economic stimulus, nor discontinued existing market programs.

Immediately following the FOMC’s statement, mortgage markets rallied, pressuring mortgage rates to fall. 

Mortgage rates remain near all-time lows and, for homeowners willing to pay points plus closing costs, conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgages can be locked at below 4 percent. If you’re in the process of buying or refinancing a home , it’s a good time to lock a mortgage rate with your lender.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a one-day event slated for March 13, 2012.

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from a scheduled 2-day meeting today, its first of 8 scheduled meetings this year.

The FOMC is a designated, rotating, 12-person committee within the Federal Reserve, led by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Members of the FOMC sub-committee are the voting members of the Federal Reserve; the ones that ultimately determine U.S. monetary policy.

The most well-known Federal Reserve monetary policy tool is the central bank’s Fed Funds Rate. The Fed Funds Rate is the prescribed interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other for a period of one night. 

The Fed Funds Rate can only be changed by FOMC vote.

For home buyers and would-be refinancing households , it’s important to recognize that the Fed Funds Rate is an interest rate separate and distinct from “mortgage rates”. Mortgage rates are not voted upon by the Federal Reserve. Rather, mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds, a security bought and sold among investors.

Historically, there is little correlation between the Fed Funds Rates and 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates. Going back 20 years, the benchmark rates have been separated by as much as 5.29% and have been as near as 0.52%. 

The spread has even gone negative, most recently in 1979 and 1981 — a period marked by high inflation.

Today, the separation between the Fed Funds Rate and the average, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is roughly 3.60%. Beginning at 12:30 PM ET, however, that spread is expected to change. The FOMC will make its statement to the press at that time, and will release its quarterly forecast to the markets.

As Wall Street reacts to the Fed’s press release and projections, mortgage rates will move.

Investors expect the Fed to vote the Fed Funds Rate unchanged from its current range near 0.000 percent, but are unsure of how the Fed will characterize the U.S. economy. If the Fed speaks optimistically on the economy, stock markets should rise and mortgage bonds should fall, driving mortgage rates higher.

Conversely, if the Fed shows concern for future economic growth, mortgage rates should drop. Either way, today figures to be volatile one for mortgage markets. 

When mortgage markets get volatile, the safe play as a rate shopper is to lock your mortgage rate immediately. There too much risk in floating.

According to data from the National Association of REALTORS®, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, December’s Existing Home Sales climbed by 120,00 units overall from the month prior on its way to an 11-month high.

An “existing home” is a home that’s been previously occupied; that cannot be considered new construction.

After 4.61 million existing homes were sold in December, there are now just 2.38 million homes for sale nationwide. The last time the national home supply was this sparse was March 2005.

At today’s sales pace, the complete, national home inventory would be exhausted in 6.2 months — the fastest pace since before the recession. A 6.0-month supply is believed to represent a market in balance. 

The December Existing Home Sales report contained noteworthy foreclosure and short sale statistics, too :

• Foreclosures sold at an average discount of 22% to market value
• Short sales sold at an average discount of 13% to market value
• Together, foreclosures and short sales accounted for 32% of all home sales

Clearly, “distressed homes” remain a large part of the U.S. housing market.

Furthermore, in its report, the real estate trade group also noted that one-third of homes under contract to sell nationwide succumbed to contract failure last month. That’s up from 9% one year ago.

Contract failure occurs for a multitude of reasons, most notably homes appraising for less than the purchase price; the buyer’s failure to achieve a mortgage approval; and, insurmountable home inspection issues. December’s high failure rate underscores the importance of getting pre-approved as a buyer, and of buying homes in “good condition”.

For today’s home buyer , December’s Existing Home Sales figures may be construed as a “buy signal”. Home supplies are dropping and buyer demand is rising. This is the basic recipe for higher home prices ahead.

If your 2012 plans call for buying a home, consider that home values are expected to rise as the year progresses. The best values of the year may be the ones secured this winter.

How long has it been since you last changed your home’s air filters? 

Home air filters trap and remove dust and particles from the air you breathe; leaving “clean air” to circulate your home. 

Clean air in your home is important because it promotes better health.

One way to keep to keep your home’s air as clean as possible is to replace its used air filters at least once per quarter; or once monthly in homes with shedding pets or that otherwise “get dusty”.

Changing air filters is among the easier do-it-yourself chores for a homeowner; a task that takes less than one minute. The secondary benefit of doing it is that new filters help keep your HVAC unit in tip-top shape. 

Here’s how to change your home’s air filter :

1. Open the air filter compartment door/slider on your HVAC unit.
2. Note the size of your current filter. It’s typically written on the frame.
3. Note the direction in which the filter is pointing. There may be an arrow on its frame.
4. Purchase a new filter at a hardware store. Make sure the sizes matches the size from Step 2.
5. Remove the old filter. 
6. Replace old filter with the newly purchased one from Step 4. Make sure the arrow is pointing in the same direction as the original filter’s arrow.
7. Using a marker, note the date of filter change on the side of the filter.
8. Close the air filter compartment door/slider.

And that’s it.

When you find a filter type and style that you like, consider buying them in bulk — it can be helpful to have extra air filters laying around the home for when you need them — especially during season changes when you may want to replace filters more frequently.

In addition, when purchasing air filters, don’t opt for the cheapest available. Often, the least expensive filters allow large particles to recirculate through the HVAC unit, and back in to your home. Choose a middle- or top-line product instead.

Your home and your health will thank you.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the Pending Home Sales Index rose 2 percent last month to reach its highest level since March.

A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

The forward-looking Pending Home Sales Index is up 11 percent from its low of the year, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, and well ahead of its rolling 6-month average.

Unfortunately, national data isn’t always helpful for buyers and sellers nationwide. To help make data more relevant, therefore, the official Pending Home Sales Index report includes a region-by-region breakdown.

Between May and June 2011, results were mixed:

• Northeast Region: -0.4%
• Midwest Region : -3.7%
• South Region : +4.4%
• West Region : +6.4%

However, even the value of regional data may be dubious.

The West Region, for example, which showed big gains in June, is comprised of multiple states containing thousands of cities and towns. Some of those areas outperformed the region, and some of them underperformed. The Pending Home Sales Index doesn’t show which towns did which. It can’t.

For everyday buyers and sellers , it’s the local data that matters. Here in Vermont single family home sales have seen a steady climb in sales volume 5 months in a row, July looks to follow suit as well.

The Pending Home Sales Index shows that more contracts were written in June than in April or May — a good sign for housing overall. And because 80% of all contracts close within 60 days, we can expect the summer’s home resale activity to be high.

This leads home prices higher. To get a more accurate sense of price trends, I like to look at dollar per square foot trends. The more local you look at stats, the better off you will be, so drill down, first Vermont, then the county, then your town, neighborhood and finally your street. Vermont, Chittenden County, Burlington, South End, Home Avenue as an example.

With mortgage rates low and home sales spiking, now may be the best time to buy a home in 2011. Home prices appear to be rising and mortgage rates should, too.

Homebuilder confidence is bouncing back, throughout the nation but more significantly here in Vermont. Just yesterday a major local developer contacted me about an exiting project in the advanced planning stage. He indicated how this will favorably impact our economy right here in Chittenden County.

One month after an unceremonious dip highlighted by poor sales figures and dim prospects for the future, the National Association of Homebuilder’s Housing Market Index rebounded two points to 15 in July.

The monthly Housing Market Index is scored on a 1-100 scale. Readings above 50 indicate favorable conditions for homebuilders and the “new home” market. Readings below 50 indicate unfavorable conditions.

The Housing Market Index has not read higher than 50 in more than 5 years.

As a housing metric, the HMI is actually a composite of three separate surveys, self-reported by builders. What I’m finding here in Vermont is that most of the new housing inventory being built is for rentals, that means the available homes for sale is not growing at this time. The surveys ask about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume; and current buyer foot traffic levels.

In July, the responses read as follows :

• Current single-family sales : 15 (+2 from June)
• Projected single-family sales : 22 (+7 from June)
• Buyer foot traffic : 12 (Unchanged from June)

The most noteworthy reading is the rapid rise in Projected single-family home sales. Although builders aren’t experiencing more foot traffic, they think sales will spike between now and the New Year.

That could spell bad news for home buyers.

When builders harbor higher expectations for the future, they’re less willing to make concessions for upgrades and/or price. Your likelihood of getting “a great deal” as a buyer diminishes.

That’s why it’s good that mortgage rates are still so low. Low mortgage rates help with home affordability and can offset slight jumps in sale price.

Mortgage rates remain just above their lowest levels of 2011, and of all-time. So should buyers be scared to make a move, and that fear is that they are going to miss the bottom of the market just like millions of folks that missed the recent bottom in the stock market. Shift gear Vermont buyers, now is as good as it gets.

Foreclosures and short sales–which are selling, on average, at a 20 percent discount–continue to hamper the new-home market, making it difficult for builders to compete against the ultra low prices.

While the prices of new homes were on the rise, inventories of new homes continued to shrink, with inventories falling to its lowest level on record (166,000 homes). Economists noted that at the May sales pace, it would take 6.2 months to clear the supply of homes off the market.

Meanwhile, foreclosure filings for the eighth straight month also were down as filings fell 33 percent in May compared to a year earlier and 2 percent month-over-month. Also, lenders took back fewer homes in May, the second straight month of declines. And bank repossessions were down in May too — down nearly 30 percent over the last 12 months.

Is this a sign of a recovery in real estate, which has been bogged down by a high number of foreclosures over the last several years? Experts are still cautious but the real estate market is showing signs of improvement.

To learn is your property qualifies for Building Performance services visit, Efficiency Vermont.  Search for Building Performance Program and then click on the link for Eligibility Criteria. You will also find a list of Vermont contractors on this site.